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A forward-looking roadmap that gave Libya, for the first time, a clear, data-driven vision of future electricity supply and outages, enabling smarter planning, better preparation, and a more stable national grid.
Project Overview
The Five-Year National Electricity Supply & Outage Forecast is one of the most strategic analytical tools developed to support Libya’s electricity sector. It provides a comprehensive projection of electricity supply, demand, and expected outage trends over a five-year horizon, offering national institutions a data-driven foundation for planning and operational decision-making.
This forecast equips GECOL and government entities with the insight needed to plan generation maintenance, allocate resources more effectively, manage peak demand, and reduce scheduled outages by anticipating system stress points before they occur.
This work was led by Sami Khaled, Senior Power Systems and Renewable Energy Advisor, and was implemented by Pragma Corporation and funded by USAID, strengthening national planning capabilities and supporting informed decision-making across the electricity sector.
Summary
Based on extensive system data, operational trends, historical load behaviour, and planned generation activities, the forecasting model provided a realistic view of expected supply deficits and outage durations. The analysis supported national decision-makers in addressing the root causes of outages and managing seasonal peak risks with greater accuracy and preparedness.
The forecast was complemented by semi-annual load-shedding projections, enabling GECOL to communicate transparently with the public and coordinate effectively across regions. These tools also informed the design of mitigation measures, emergency response plans, and cross-sector agreements aimed at shifting industrial peak loads.
This forecasting work became a key milestone for national planning, forming the analytical backbone for grid stabilisation, maintenance scheduling, and emergency preparedness across Libya.
Key Achievements
Developed Libya’s first national five-year electricity supply and outage forecast, providing a clear outlook for the sector
Produced regular semi-annual load shedding forecasts to guide operational planning and stakeholder communication
Enabled signing of agreements with major industrial consumers to shift load away from peak periods
Provided essential input for seasonal maintenance planning, peak-demand readiness, and emergency response
Strengthened institutional ability to anticipate and prevent supply-demand deficits
Helped align national planning with medium-term energy sector goals
Impact
Improved national preparedness for winter and summer peak periods
Reduced unplanned outages through better maintenance and forecasting
Increased visibility and predictability for government ministries, public institutions, and industrial consumers
Enhanced GECOL’s ability to communicate outage expectations and manage public confidence
Supported the elimination of the supply–demand deficit by improving planning and load management
Built technical capacity within Libya’s electricity institutions to use forecasting tools for long-term planning
We can help your organisation
Green Power Associate supports utilities, governments, and institutions in developing advanced forecasting models, outage planning tools, and analytical frameworks to strengthen grid reliability. Our experts help design data-driven systems that anticipate risks, improve operational planning, and support long-term energy transition goals.
Whether you are preparing for peak demand, integrating renewables, or improving outage management, we can help you build the analytical foundation needed for a stable and resilient electricity future.
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